Gibbs, BabyCharkz
Half a budget, one running back. The most expensive player in the entire auction.
THE ROOM'S VERDICT
Big checks.
Small margins.
The biggest names ate the budget. Gibbs went for $100, Bijan for $97, and McCaffrey for $90. But the most expensive player did not automatically buy the best team.
Kenny and Zach are effectively tied at the top. Dash follows with three startable backs. Behind them, the middle is a traffic jam: five teams sit within roughly half a point per week. Read the tiers before taking a victory lap over one rank.
14Teams audited
$2,762Actual auction spend
$51Left on the table
5,000Simulated seasons
Kickers on kickers
58%modeled playoff odds
02 / EastT.E.A.
56%modeled playoff odds
03 / EastSkyy Pongers
50%modeled playoff odds
DRAFT-NIGHT RECEIPTS
The room kept a tab.
Tyler / Will, unspent
The only unused cap in the room. A competitive roster—and an expensive missed opportunity.
Patrick Mahomes
Dhruv spent $173 on his top three players and still found a starting quarterback for a dollar.
ALL 14 TEAMS / NO DIPLOMATIC IMMUNITY
The complete board.
Ranked by mean simulated scoring. Odds reflect the actual schedule and three playoff berths per division. Close numbers are close calls.
1 Kenny2 Zach3 Dash4 Dhruv5 Nehmad6 Phoun7 Aaron8 Tyler / Will9 Henry10 Chase11 Dan12 Lawrence13 Travis14 Marcus
POWER RANK01
East · Kenny · Front of the pack
Kickers on kickers
107.9MODELED PPG
58%Playoffs
12%Title
$203Spent / $203
$0Unspent
The rare auction with no emergency exit.
Lamar, Bowers, Nico and Rice cost $139 combined. That left enough for Jacobs, Irving and actual flex alternatives instead of a prayer circle. Kenny earns a share of the top tier through balance; the model's razor-thin lead over Zach is not a meaningful separation.
↗ Why it works
Bowers anchors the No. 1 projected TE spot, while Lamar supplies an elite quarterback ceiling. Dobbins and Stevenson keep the flex from becoming a weekly waiver audition.
↘ What can break
The RB pair ranks only 12th in this room. Jacobs at $21 and Irving at $22 look sensible, but neither price guarantees a dominant backfield.
THE RECEIPT Josh Jacobs · $21
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 4RB 12WR 6TE 1FLEX 6DEPTH 5
Projected skill starters
- QBLamar Jackson$27
- RBBucky Irving$22
- RBJosh Jacobs$21
- WRRashee Rice$30
- WRNico Collins$45
- TEBrock Bowers$37
- FLEXJ.K. Dobbins$7
Other draft picks
- RBRhamondre Stevenson$6
- RBJonah Coleman$2
- WRMichael Pittman$2
- WRStefon Diggs$2
- DEFDenver Broncos$1
- KCameron Dicker$1
POWER RANK02
East · Zach · Front of the pack
T.E.A.
107.9MODELED PPG
56%Playoffs
12%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
Three quarterbacks. One starting spot. Somehow, a contender.
Zach found enough usable running backs to survive the roster's eccentricities. Achane is the headliner; Henderson, Hubbard and Dowdle provide the options. The two-tight-end build is less damaging in a one-flex league than it looks, but the third quarterback still needs to become a kicker.
↗ Why it works
The model likes the Warren/LaPorta options and ranks the flex second. A $6 Dowdle and $11 Henderson keep the supporting cast relevant.
↘ What can break
A.J. Brown needs help at receiver, and $24 went into two tight ends. The draft finished without a kicker; this forecast assumes Stafford is released to make room for one.
THE RECEIPT Rico Dowdle · $6
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 6RB 9WR 9TE 3FLEX 2DEPTH 4
Projected skill starters
- QBDak Prescott$4
- RBDe'Von Achane$70
- RBTreVeyon Henderson$11
- WRA.J. Brown$55
- WRChristian Watson$5
- TETyler Warren$9
- FLEXRico Dowdle$6
Other draft picks
- TESam LaPorta$15
- RBChuba Hubbard$12
- WRBrian Thomas$5
- DEFLos Angeles Rams$4
- QBBo Nix$2
- QBMatthew Stafford †$2
† Draft ended without a kicker. The forecast frees a spot by removing Matthew Stafford and assumes a streaming kicker. This is a modeling assumption, not a reported transaction.
POWER RANK03
East · Dash · Front of the pack
Skyy Pongers
106.9MODELED PPG
50%Playoffs
9%Title
$205Spent / $205
$0Unspent
Three running backs walk into a starting lineup.
Dash committed $153 to Walker, Jeanty and Love. In BSD, all three can start together. The model rewards that plan with the No. 2 RB unit and No. 1 flex, even as the receiver and tight-end rooms keep the ceiling from running away with the league.
↗ Why it works
Jeremiyah Love at $29 is a substantial third back. Waddle, McConkey and Odunze provide choices at receiver even without an elite anchor.
↘ What can break
Walker at $71 leaves a lot riding on one role. The starting WR pair ranks 13th and Hunter Henry leaves the TE unit 12th.
THE RECEIPT Jeremiyah Love · $29
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 10RB 2WR 13TE 12FLEX 1DEPTH 7
Projected skill starters
- QBJustin Herbert$6
- RBKenneth Walker$71
- RBAshton Jeanty$53
- WRJaylen Waddle$14
- WRRome Odunze$7
- TEHunter Henry$1
- FLEXJeremiyah Love$29
Other draft picks
- WRLadd McConkey$19
- WRWan'Dale Robinson$1
- RBChris Rodriguez$1
- QBJared Goff$1
- KWill Reichard$1
- DEFDallas Cowboys$1
POWER RANK04
West · Dhruv · Front of the pack
Burbank 112
105.7MODELED PPG
56%Playoffs
10%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
A $90 engine with a $1 ignition key.
Dhruv bought McCaffrey before the room had time to settle, then paid $42 for Javonte Williams and $41 for Nabers. Those three absorbed $173. Mahomes for a dollar is the sort of late-room gift that makes the rest of that spending survivable.
↗ Why it works
The strongest projected starting backfield in the league. A cheap Mahomes/Kelce pairing keeps the premium positions from consuming the remaining budget.
↘ What can break
The model ranks the starting receiver pair last, and McCaffrey carries 45% of the entire budget. A strong West forecast is not protection from concentrated risk.
THE RECEIPT Patrick Mahomes · $1
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 8RB 1WR 14TE 8FLEX 8DEPTH 6
Projected skill starters
- QBPatrick Mahomes$1
- RBChristian McCaffrey$90
- RBJavonte Williams$42
- WRMalik Nabers$41
- WRMike Evans$9
- TETravis Kelce$4
- FLEXRachaad White$1
Other draft picks
- RBJordan Mason$4
- WRChris Godwin$3
- WRJa'Kobi Lane$2
- WRDeebo Samuel$1
- KEvan McPherson$1
- DEFJacksonville Jaguars$1
POWER RANK05
East · Nehmad · In the fight
BabyCharkz
104.8MODELED PPG
35%Playoffs
7%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
A hundred-dollar Gibbs habit.
Nehmad paid the only triple-digit price of the night. That is a spectacular way to announce your intentions. Olave and Adams still made it onto the roster, but the middle of the lineup now depends on Tuten and a collection of inexpensive receivers doing their jobs.
↗ Why it works
Gibbs lifts the starting RB unit to third. Meyers for $1 and Reed for $4 give this stars-first build more fallback options than the headline price suggests.
↘ What can break
Half the budget went to one player. The flex ranks 10th and the tight-end spot 11th; the tougher East makes those weak points costly.
THE RECEIPT Jahmyr Gibbs · $100
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 9RB 3WR 7TE 11FLEX 10DEPTH 3
Projected skill starters
- QBTrevor Lawrence$3
- RBJahmyr Gibbs$100
- RBBhayshul Tuten$15
- WRChris Olave$47
- WRDavante Adams$20
- TEJake Ferguson$1
- FLEXJakobi Meyers$1
Other draft picks
- RBKyle Monangai$4
- WRJayden Reed$4
- WRQuentin Johnston$2
- WRJosh Downs$1
- DEFNew England Patriots$1
- KHarrison Mevis$1
POWER RANK06
West · Phoun · In the fight
King-Phoun
104.8MODELED PPG
55%Playoffs
8%Title
$202Spent / $202
$0Unspent
The Emperor has receivers. The prophecy can wait.
Phoun's $73 JSN purchase came with Egbuka, Jameson Williams and a $4 DK Metcalf. That is a real receiver room, not just imperial messaging. The rest is more ordinary: an expensive Kyren anchor, Montgomery, and a Dart bet that needs to land.
↗ Why it works
No. 3 starting receivers and No. 2 weighted depth. The West gives this balanced roster a friendlier route into the playoff field.
↘ What can break
The model puts both QB and RB outside the top ten. Royal decrees cannot turn a thin weekly margin into a runaway favorite.
THE RECEIPT DK Metcalf · $4
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 12RB 11WR 3TE 5FLEX 7DEPTH 2
Projected skill starters
- QBJaxson Dart$5
- RBKyren Williams$49
- RBDavid Montgomery$22
- WRJaxon Smith-Njigba$73
- WREmeka Egbuka$23
- TEHarold Fannin$3
- FLEXJameson Williams$10
Other draft picks
- WRDK Metcalf$4
- RBBlake Corum$4
- DEFSeattle Seahawks$3
- RBKenny Gainwell$3
- RBZach Charbonnet$2
- KKa'imi Fairbairn$1
POWER RANK07
West · Aaron · In the fight
Hold My Ditka
104.8MODELED PPG
54%Playoffs
9%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
Two superstars and a very small shopping basket.
Aaron spent $159 on Bijan and Jefferson, then another $32 on McBride and Maye. Four players, $191. The remaining nine picks all cost a dollar, which makes this one of the cleanest examples of stars-and-scrubs the room could produce.
↗ Why it works
Bijan, Jefferson, McBride and Maye supply a legitimate weekly knockout punch. The No. 2 TE and No. 4 RB unit preserve a strong title path.
↘ What can break
The WR2 and flex are the bill for those stars. Matthew Golden, Aaron Jones and Tyjae Spears must keep the supporting lineup above water.
THE RECEIPT Bijan + Jefferson · $159
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 5RB 4WR 12TE 2FLEX 13DEPTH 9
Projected skill starters
- QBDrake Maye$14
- RBBijan Robinson$97
- RBAaron Jones$1
- WRJustin Jefferson$62
- WRMatthew Golden$1
- TETrey McBride$18
- FLEXTyjae Spears$1
Other draft picks
- DEFChicago Bears$1
- WRRomeo Doubs$1
- KJake Bates$1
- WRRashid Shaheed$1
- QBBaker Mayfield$1
- TEBrenton Strange$1
POWER RANK08
East · Tyler / Will · In the fight
Tyler / Will
104.2MODELED PPG
43%Playoffs
7%Title
$149Spent / $200
$51Unspent
The bank account won draft night.
Tyler and Will left $51 unused. That is a quarter of the starting budget that will never score a point. The twist: Daniels for $4, Sutton for $6 and Pollard for $7 still produced a competitive roster with the model's best weighted bench depth. The missed opportunity is enormous, not the same thing as a dead team.
↗ Why it works
No. 3 QB and No. 4 TE/flex units give the roster enough structure to compete. A good value can still be a good player.
↘ What can break
No premium RB or WR anchor, despite the leftover cash. The Texans and Aubrey cost $9 while the roster finished $51 short of the cap.
THE RECEIPT Unused auction budget · $51
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 3RB 10WR 10TE 4FLEX 4DEPTH 1
Projected skill starters
- QBJayden Daniels$4
- RBCam Skattebo$26
- RBD'Andre Swift$27
- WRZay Flowers$18
- WRCourtland Sutton$6
- TEColston Loveland$15
- FLEXTony Pollard$7
Other draft picks
- RBJadarian Price$22
- TEGeorge Kittle$8
- DEFHouston Texans$6
- WRAlec Pierce$4
- RBRJ Harvey$3
- KBrandon Aubrey$3
POWER RANK09
West · Henry · In the fight
Orange Krush
104.2MODELED PPG
50%Playoffs
8%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
The foundation is good. The finish is young.
Henry put $137 into James Cook and Amon-Ra, then found Tee Higgins for $17. That is a credible foundation. The flex and bench are loaded with younger bets, so the difference between a contender and an ordinary week will often come after the obvious names.
↗ Why it works
Amon-Ra and Higgins form the No. 2 projected starting WR pair. Judkins at $28 completes a respectable four-player RB/WR base.
↘ What can break
Quarterback and flex rank in the bottom half. The auction also finished without a kicker; the model assumes Emmett Johnson is the roster spot used to add one.
THE RECEIPT Tee Higgins · $17
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 11RB 7WR 2TE 9FLEX 9DEPTH 8
Projected skill starters
- QBCaleb Williams$4
- RBJames Cook$75
- RBQuinshon Judkins$28
- WRAmon-Ra St. Brown$62
- WRTee Higgins$17
- TEDallas Goedert$1
- FLEXCarnell Tate$3
Other draft picks
- WRMichael Wilson$3
- RBEmmett Johnson †$2
- WRKC Concepcion$2
- WRXavier Worthy$1
- RBTyler Allgeier$1
- DEFPittsburgh Steelers$1
† Draft ended without a kicker. The forecast frees a spot by removing Emmett Johnson and assumes a streaming kicker. This is a modeling assumption, not a reported transaction.
POWER RANK10
East · Chase · Work to do
Dish Repair
102.2MODELED PPG
32%Playoffs
4%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
Four big names. Three unresolved slots.
Chase spent $184 on Barkley, Hall, London and Wilson. The starting core is easy to like. The trouble is what came next: Kincaid, a budget quarterback committee and a Parker Washington flex. The East does not offer much space to hide those concessions.
↗ Why it works
Garrett Wilson for $19 is an efficient fourth piece beside the expensive backfield. The core can produce winning weeks without needing every cheap pick to hit.
↘ What can break
QB and TE both rank 13th; flex ranks 11th. Two inexpensive quarterbacks do not automatically add up to one positional advantage.
THE RECEIPT Garrett Wilson · $19
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 13RB 6WR 8TE 13FLEX 11DEPTH 10
Projected skill starters
- QBBrock Purdy$1
- RBSaquon Barkley$75
- RBBreece Hall$42
- WRDrake London$48
- WRGarrett Wilson$19
- TEDalton Kincaid$2
- FLEXParker Washington$5
Other draft picks
- WRDe'Zhaun Stribling$2
- QBKyler Murray$2
- RBMike Washington$1
- RBWoody Marks$1
- KJason Myers$1
- DEFMinnesota Vikings$1
POWER RANK11
West · Dan · Work to do
TacoCorp
101.3MODELED PPG
31%Playoffs
4%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
TacoCorp acquired the headliners. Operations is understaffed.
Dan's Taylor/Puka/Etienne trio cost $172. Burrow brought the subtotal to $183, and the final stretch became a bargain-bin staffing exercise. The stars are excellent; the model is much less enthusiastic about the flex and injury insurance attached to them.
↗ Why it works
Top-five projected RB and WR units. Mark Andrews for $1 is a useful piece of damage control after the marquee spending.
↘ What can break
Last in both flex and weighted depth. This roster needs its expensive starters available because the next man up is a steep drop.
THE RECEIPT Taylor + Puka + Etienne · $172
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 7RB 5WR 4TE 7FLEX 14DEPTH 14
Projected skill starters
- QBJoe Burrow$11
- RBJonathan Taylor$85
- RBTravis Etienne$26
- WRPuka Nacua$61
- WRMarvin Harrison$7
- TEMark Andrews$1
- FLEXJordan Addison$3
Other draft picks
- DEFBaltimore Ravens$1
- RBKeaton Mitchell$1
- RBTyrone Tracy$1
- TEOronde Gadsden$1
- KChris Boswell$1
- RBBrian Robinson$1
POWER RANK12
East · Lawrence · Work to do
Law of Diminishing Return
101.0MODELED PPG
25%Playoffs
4%Title
$201Spent / $201
$0Unspent
The receivers are elite. The RB2 is a business risk.
Lawrence got Chase, DeVonta and Hurts, and the model loves the passing-game foundation. Hampton at $52 absorbed the running-back investment. That leaves a $3 Croskey-Merritt and late rookie tickets to solve a problem the receiver room cannot fully cover.
↗ Why it works
No. 1 projected starting WR pair and No. 2 QB. The Chase/DeVonta combination gives this roster a genuine path to upset anybody.
↘ What can break
The starting RB unit ranks last. Strong receivers can win a week; they cannot fill an empty second running-back slot.
THE RECEIPT Jalen Hurts · $15
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 2RB 14WR 1TE 10FLEX 5DEPTH 12
Projected skill starters
- QBJalen Hurts$15
- RBOmarion Hampton$52
- RBJacory Croskey-Merritt$3
- WRJa'Marr Chase$80
- WRDeVonta Smith$28
- TETucker Kraft$5
- FLEXLuther Burden$12
Other draft picks
- DEFPhiladelphia Eagles$1
- WRDenzel Boston$1
- WRJalen Nailor$1
- RBDylan Sampson$1
- WROmar Cooper$1
- KTyler Bass$1
POWER RANK13
West · Travis · Work to do
Cab
100.5MODELED PPG
30%Playoffs
3%Title
$202Spent / $202
$0Unspent
The Ego Bowl starts with a lineup audit.
Travis spent $164 on Lamb, Chase Brown and Pickens, then found McLaurin for $10. That gives Cab a dangerous receiver/flex combination. But Jordan Love and Isaiah Likely sit at the bottom of their respective positional rankings in this particular room.
↗ Why it works
The No. 3 flex projection is a real advantage, with McLaurin behind Lamb and Pickens. A good week from those three can erase a lot of structural complaints.
↘ What can break
Last at QB and TE, with No. 13 depth. Spending $10 on MarShawn Lloyd was a sizable bet for a roster still missing insulation elsewhere.
THE RECEIPT Terry McLaurin · $10
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 14RB 8WR 5TE 14FLEX 3DEPTH 13
Projected skill starters
- QBJordan Love$1
- RBChase Brown$64
- RBJaylen Warren$9
- WRCeeDee Lamb$67
- WRGeorge Pickens$33
- TEIsaiah Likely$3
- FLEXTerry McLaurin$10
Other draft picks
- RBMarShawn Lloyd$10
- KCam Little$1
- DEFLos Angeles Chargers$1
- RBTank Bigsby$1
- RBKaelon Black$1
- WRTre Tucker$1
POWER RANK14
West · Marcus · Work to do
Panthers past and present
99.2MODELED PPG
25%Playoffs
3%Title
$200Spent / $200
$0Unspent
Josh Allen cannot play RB2.
Marcus paid $43 for the league's best projected quarterback, then $63 for Derrick Henry. McMillan and DJ Moore used another $71. The result is a strong headline group with an uncomfortable amount of responsibility assigned to Jonathon Brooks and the cheapest part of the roster.
↗ Why it works
Allen is the No. 1 QB by the blended projection. Kyle Pitts at $5 offers a reasonable TE floor, and a single Allen eruption can scramble any matchup.
↘ What can break
RB, WR and flex all rank in the bottom four. The Panthers theme is fun; the second running-back projection is less fun.
THE RECEIPT Josh Allen · $43
Roster, prices & positional ranks
QB 1RB 13WR 11TE 6FLEX 12DEPTH 11
Projected skill starters
- QBJosh Allen$43
- RBDerrick Henry$63
- RBJonathon Brooks$9
- WRTetairoa McMillan$37
- WRDJ Moore$34
- TEKyle Pitts$5
- FLEXKhalil Shakir$1
Other draft picks
- WRMakai Lemon$3
- KHarrison Butker$1
- WRJalen Coker$1
- WRTank Dell$1
- DEFDetroit Lions$1
- RBAlvin Kamara$1
THE DIVISION TAX
Same points.
Different road.
BabyCharkz and King-Phoun both project to about 104.8 points a week. Their playoff odds diverge because of division competition, schedule and roster volatility. The King did not promise equal roads.
Current Sleeper divisions are used. Burbank 112 is in the West; Tyler / Will is in the East. The Money Bowl crosses divisions.
WEEKS 1 & 14
Keep the receipts.
There's a rematch.
Seven rivalries. One opening statement and one chance to make it personal.
HOW TO READ THIS
A forecast.
Not a coronation.
Actual auction facts. Independent projections. An illustrative season model.
All 182 selections and prices come from the completed BSD Sleeper auction. This is a draft-night roster audit, not a live waiver tracker. Prices are dollars paid, not estimated values.
Player forecasts blend Razzball and Mike Clay / ESPN, retrieved September 5. Scoring uses half-PPR, four-point passing TDs and minus one per interception. Tank Dell has only a Razzball match; all other drafted skill players have both sources.
Five thousand seeded simulations use BSD's actual 14-week schedule and current divisions. Three teams per division qualify; division winners receive byes. PPG includes an equal modeled kicker/defense contribution, so it measures roster construction rather than specialist selection.
These are model estimates, not calibrated probabilities. Small rank gaps are noise. Injuries, lineup choices, trades and waiver wins can change everything. Kenny and Zach's lead is a top tier, not a guarantee.
Full assumptions & limitations
- Lineup: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 1 FLEX, K, DEF and 4 bench. The current Sleeper configuration takes precedence over the earlier five-bench email.
- All roster details show draft picks. Orange Krush and T.E.A. drafted no kicker. The model removes Emmett Johnson and Matthew Stafford, respectively, to make space for one; it does not claim those transactions occurred.
- Each week selects a legal skill lineup using projected strength and simulated availability before drawing performance. Unfilled skill slots receive generic replacement means: QB 12, RB/WR/FLEX 4, TE 3 points.
- Base season projections are divided by 17 games. Random weekly absences: QB 5%, RB 10%, WR/TE 8%. Active-game means are normalized for those absences. NFL bye weeks also remove players.
- Season form uses lognormal volatility of 0.16; weekly volatility is 0.25 QB, 0.40 RB, 0.48 WR/TE. A shared NFL-team factor of 0.10 introduces modest correlation. These are analyst assumptions, not fitted injury or usage forecasts.
- Kicker and defense together use a neutral 14-point mean with 5-point standard deviation, floored at zero. No specialist edge is modeled. Fumbles, pick-sixes, two-point plays and 200-yard bonuses are omitted because the two projection sources do not provide consistent inputs.
- Standings use wins, then points. Quarterfinals pair West #2 with East #3 and East #2 with West #3; division winners face the opposite quarterfinal. Playoffs cover Weeks 15–17, with no reseeding.
- Positional ranks use each team's strongest projected legal starting lineup. Depth sums remaining skill-player weekly projections with backup quarterbacks weighted at 25%; it is a comparative construction metric, not projected bench scoring.
- Seed: 20260905. Odds are rounded to whole percentages; simulation sampling error near 50% is roughly ±1.4 percentage points at 95% confidence, before much larger modeling uncertainty. Changes to assumptions can reorder close teams.
MODEL RUN / SEPTEMBER 5, 2026